How Salah’s Golden Boot Illustrates the Trade-Off Haaland and Isak Couldn’t Master

Alan Shearer finished his Premier League career with 260 goals. For context, that is three goals more than the combined tally of Ian Wright (113) and Robin Van Persie (144). Back in 2023, the former Newcastle United captain wrote a piece in The Athletic, assessing why and how strikers miss chances. 

He expertly cited that missing is an integral part of the game for a forward and the only way is through - keep shooting despite failures (if we were to paraphrase). So how well does this advice hold up when tested against last season’s top scorers in the English top flight — the Haaland vs Salah vs Isak debate.

While it is impossible to gauge the out and out better player among them over the course of just one season, what we can do is break down the numbers to understand who stood out and how far behind really were the other two.

Mohamed Salah took the Golden Boot with 29 goals in the campaign while his new Liverpool teammate Alexander Isak came second with 23 goals. Erling Haaland followed with 22 strikes to his name indicating that the Egyptian won the Golden Boot by a comfortable margin. However, since their minutes on the pitch varied, can we still call Salah the most prolific shooter in the league last season?





The Liverpool forward averaged one goal every 117 minutes, the best in the league. Isak came second with a goal every 121 minutes while Haaland ranked third, scoring every 125 minutes. Despite the gap reducing significantly as compared to goals scored, the Egyptian still comes out ahead. Simply put, if consistency was the key metric - Salah delivers most often.





So what is he doing right? Shearer’s argument would have us believe he is getting into the best positions and shooting more frequently than others. That idea sounds simple — until we test it.

One of the easier ways to understand if a player is shooting by getting into the “right” position is to check the average xG (expected goal) of their shots, i.e. what is the likelihood of their shot turning into a goal. The poorer the xG of a shot, the more likely it is that the player is shooting prematurely or is simply confident in his ability to score screamers. Conversely, a higher xG per shot usually reflects patience and positioning over speculative attempts.

Alexander Isak recorded 0.273xG per shot in the 2024-25 Premier League season. In comparison, Mohamed Salah registered 0.256xG per shot while Erling Haaland had an average of 0.244xG per shot. Numerically, Isak tops the list, showcasing his ability to sniff out the correct moments before unleashing his shot. However, it was not enough to make him the most prolific shooter in the league. Salah comes in next, creating almost equal gaps between Isak, himself, and Haaland, who sits in third place here.





The Manchester City forward’s xG per shot can be explained better via his shot selection. The Norwegian registered 3.08 shots per 90 last season in the Premier League, the highest compared to Isak’s 2.5 shots per 90 and Salah’s 2.76 shots per 90. 

Putting the two factors together (xG/shot [the right position] and shots per 90[frequency of shots]), we can see that Haaland’s dip in his xG/shot was probably caused by his tendency to shoot more than the other two, which could also have contributed to his finishing third in the Golden Boot race. Isak, despite being on the other end of the spectrum in this comparative parameter, fared one goal better than the Manchester City forward.

Coming back to Salah’s numbers, his Shots/90 places him once again comfortably between Isak and Haaland at 2.76. So what can we make of this number?




Well, the most logical inference is that “getting into the right positions” and “shooting more frequently than others” do not go hand in hand and dominating in one arena often pushes back the ability to ace the other domain. In fact, they are like the two ends of a seesaw, in between which a striker might want to balance themselves. A player cannot excel in both together and the good news is they don't need to - ask Salah. He registered the highest goals/90 at 0.77 (Isak came second with 0.75 and Haaland with 0.72).




What is most important to notice here is that Salah did not come third in either metric (xG/shot or Shots/90); he ranked in the middle on both parameters - showing a fine balance to optimize his key output indicator - Goals.

The simplest takeaway here is that Salah’s experience of delivering over the years has taught the Egyptian a valuable lesson - being a jack of all trades is more than what it is made to be. Much like how a boxer knows when to jab and when to land the knockout punch, Salah provided a masterclass of how patience and impulse together create momentum. Jack of all trades, master of none, but oftentimes better than master of one.



Note to Readers - This is not to undermine the quality of the advice given by Shearer, a legendary scorer in perhaps the world’s most difficult league. In essence, Shearer’s message was directed to strikers as humans - keep shooting through failures (be mindful and stay in the moment, the next opportunity is what matters).

Our message to readers is allow the numbers to give you the neutral insight, then maximize on those optimized opportunities. Knocking on the right door is more important than wanting to needlessly bulldoze through a harder one.